Trump presidency: What his new team teaches us

Anthony Zurcher

12/15/2916

As Donald Trump's 20 January inauguration draws closer, the president-elect's administration is starting to take shape. What does it tell us about what we can expect from the Trump presidency?

Although the incoming president has to fill more than 4,000 executive branch jobs scattered across dozens of agencies, departments and bureaus, there are only 21 high-level positions that require Senate confirmation. So far the Trump transition team has announced nominees for 15 of the spots (a 16th, interior secretary, is reported to go to Ryan Zinke of Montana).

First, the basics. Of those 16, 11 are white men. For the first time since 1989, none of the top four departments - state, defence, treasury or justice - will be headed by a woman or a minority.

Ben Carson, tapped for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, is the only African American. Elaine Chao (transportation) and Nikki Haley (UN ambassador) are the only Asians.

Six have previously held elective office, and one - Ms Chao - has prior experience running a federal agency. That marks a significant change from past presidential administrations, which were well stocked with more experienced political hands.

Mr Trump's Cabinet is a mix of rich businessmen, former military leaders and conservative true-believers. He may have campaigned as an anti-establishment outsider, but he's mostly surrounding himself with powerful, wealthy, influential men. While many may be outsiders to the game of elective politics, they're not exactly drawn from the ranks of the angry populist masses.

Here's a closer look at how it all shakes out.

Captains of industry

American voters elected a businessman with no political experience as their president, and he's filled many of his top administration jobs with businessmen who have no political experience.

Leading the way are Rex Tillerson, who has helmed the international energy conglomerate ExxonMobil since 2006, as secretary of state and venture capitalist and former Goldman Sachs executive Steven Mnuchin for Treasury.

Other notable picks include the so-called "king of bankruptcy", Wilbur Ross, for commerce and fast food mogul Andrew Puzder at Labor.

What we've learned: Mr Trump campaigned against a global elite that he said was stripping the working class of its wealth. By looking to Wall Street insiders and corporate chieftains for key administration spots, however, his post-election actions signal a decidedly different mentality.

Here come the generals

At one point during the campaign, Mr Trump quipped that he knew more about fighting the so-called Islamic State than many of the generals currently running US military operations. When it came time to fill out his national security apparatus, however, the president-elect has frequently turned to the military brass.

James Mattis (defense) and John Kelly (homeland security) are both retired generals, as is Michael Flynn, who Mr Trump has slated for national security adviser (a position that does not require Senate confirmation).

Taken individually, the picks are unremarkable - ex-military leaders sometimes wind up in the presidential administrations of both Democrats and Republicans. Colin Powell was George W Bush's secretary of state, and David Petraeus ran the Central Intelligence Agency under Barack Obama.

Together, however, Mr Trump's picks give his administration a decidedly martial bent. While he may have mocked Mr Obama's generals, Mr Trump, who attended military school as a youth, seems inclined to favor the spit and polish of military leadership.

The military is one of the few institutions still viewed favorably by the American public, and Mr Trump seems more than happy to march along with it.

What we've learned: Candidate Trump often espoused a less interventionist foreign policy on the campaign trail, but President-elect Trump's decision to surround himself with generals could indicate he will be quicker on the trigger.

The vanquished

Former presidential candidate Rick Perry once called Mr Trump a cancer on the Republican Party. Ben Carson, another primary opponent, questioned the business mogul's religious faith. Now Mr Trump has chosen both to head Cabinet departments in his administration.

There's a certain amount of irony in Mr Perry's selection, given that he is slotted to head the Department of Energy, which he famously forgot the name of during when listing Cabinet-level posts he'd cut during a 2008 Republican primary debate.

Although Mr Trump has only named two former adversaries to his administration, he's also rumoured to be considering former computer executive Carly Fiorina for an intelligence agency post. Then there's New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who was reportedly offered several Cabinet-level positions after being passed over for attorney general.

He's a foe turned friend who now, it seems, has been forgotten.

What we've learned: Facing off against Mr Trump in the past isn't necessarily a deal-breaker for the president-elect, but a subsequent bent knee - offered both by Mr Carson and Mr Perry - is a key to bygones being bygones.

The insiders

According to a recent story in Politico, Mr Trump's transition team has been beset by conflicts between establishment party players, led by incoming chief-of-staff Reince Priebus, and the conservative outsiders who helped run the Trump campaign.

In a number of Cabinet positions, it appears the establishment landed the people they wanted. Tom Price, slated for Health and Human Services, is a member of the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives. Betsy DeVoss, heading to education, is a long-time conservative activist and Republican Party donor. Elaine Chao served as labor secretary under President George W Bush and is married to Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, considered a party rising star, is the nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations.

Given that Mr Trump is likely to be a hands-off president when it comes to the day-to-day management his administration, department heads will wield considerable power over the next four years.

While the president-elect has said there are portions of Barack Obama's healthcare reform that he likes, for instance, chances are Mr Price will use his health secretary authority to strip the programme of much of its power. While he may sit down with former Vice-President Al Gore to talk climate change, his Environmental Protection Agency nominee, Scott Pruitt, is a outspoken critic - and legal opponent - of the agency he will head.

What we've learned: Mr Trump railed against the political establishment on the campaign trail, but some of his nominees are very comfortable in the Washington "swamp". The tension between the insiders and the outsiders in the Trump transition team is likely to continue well into his presidency.

The loyalists

The first Trump Cabinet nominee to be announced, Senator Jeff Sessions for attorney general, was also one of the first national politicians to endorse the New Yorker's presidential campaign.

Several high-profile Trump political donors and advisers also were handed top positions, including Mr Mnuchin, Mr Ross and Mr Puzder. Linda McMahon, who gave more than $7m to the Trump campaign and affiliated political groups, is his pick to head the Small Business Administration. (She is also the largest donor to the Trump family's charitable foundation.)

Another Trump donor, Todd Ricketts, has landed a deputy position in the Commerce Department.

Meanwhile, some early, outspoken Trump advocates were passed over for plum positions - including former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Republican Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown. They emerged from the political graveyard to take an early gamble on Mr Trump, but they have yet to be rewarded for their efforts.

What we've learned: While fiery speeches and television appearances are nice, one of the quickest ways to Mr Trump's corridors of power appears to be with an open checkbook.

Looking ahead to a Trump presidency, a majority sees change

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director

November 22, 2016

(CNN)Two weeks after Election Day, most Americans say President-elect Donald Trump will ultimately do a good job as president, though fewer approve of the way he's handled the transition so far, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.

A narrow majority (53%), say they think Trump will do a very or fairly good job as president, and 40% say they have a lot of confidence in Trump to deal with the economy, a share that outpaces the percentage who had that much confidence in Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan ahead of their first inaugurations.

That perception comes as majorities think Trump will achieve several of the goals outlined during his campaign as top priorities. Nearly three-quarters say Trump is likely to repeal and replace Obamacare, two-thirds think he will renegotiate NAFTA and 6 in 10 say he'll create good-paying jobs in economically challenged areas. Separately, 63% say they expect the economy to be in good shape a year from now, the highest share to say so since September 2012.

Americans are more divided over whether Trump will "drain the swamp" and reduce the amount of corruption in Washington (51% think that's likely), defeat ISIS (50% see that as likely) or build a wall along the border with Mexico (48% see that as likely).

All told, 66% say a Trump presidency will bring change to the country, but just 43% say it will be change for the better, twenty points below the 63% who thought Obama would bring change for the better in November 2008. That share has dropped precipitously among independents (from 88% for Obama to 60% for Trump), and among Democrats, even when compared to Republican ratings of Obama (49% of Republicans thought Obama would bring change for the better, just 22% of Democrats say that about Trump).

Trump's favorability has risen post-election to a high point in CNN/ORC polling: 47% have a favorable view of him, 50% unfavorable. Though still tilting negative, those ratings outpace the previous high reached just after the GOP convention in July, when 43% saw Trump favorably.

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Reviews are mixed for Trump's transition so far, 46% approve of his handling of the transition, 45% disapprove. Those marks are well below approval ratings for Obama, Bush or Clinton during their transitions to the presidency. Only about half (48%) say that Trump's statements and actions since Election Day have made them more confident in his ability to serve as president, while 43% say he's made them feel less confident since upsetting Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton two weeks ago in a win that few saw coming.

On one point of concern, few say Trump's efforts have gone far enough to assuage their worries. About 6 in 10 say the arrangement Trump has proposed for handling his business while serving as president -- to have his adult children run the Trump Organization -- does not go far enough to prevent conflicts.

The poll suggests Trump is shaping up to be one of the most polarizing presidents-elect the nation has had in recent years. Alongside relatively high confidence in his ability to deal with the economy, there's also an outsized lack of confidence and a diminished middle-ground, a pattern that repeats on similar questions. While 40% say they have deep confidence in him to handle the nation's economy, 34% say they have no real confidence in him on that score, 7 points above the previous high of 27% for George W. Bush and nearly double the share who had no confidence in Obama on the economy (19%). Just a quarter fall into the middle category, saying they have "some confidence" in Trump.

On handling foreign affairs, a weak point for Trump throughout the campaign for the presidency, confidence in the President-elect is sharply upside-down, yet still, few land in the middle. Almost half (49%) say they have no real confidence vs. 27% who say they have a lot of faith in the president elect, just 23% say they have "some confidence."

On both issues, Republicans are more confident in Trump's abilities to handle them than were Democrats in Obama's abilities or Republicans in Bush's abilities on the same issues. At the same time, Democrats express far less confidence in Trump on these issues than Republicans did about Obama or Democrats themselves did about Bush in 2000. Even among independents, the share expressing no confidence at all has increased double-digits over either Bush or Obama. The trend means more people land on the extremes when assessing this President-elect, and fewer take the middle ground.

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Overall, Trump ranks toward the middle of the pack on providing leadership and making appointments, but here too, his no confidence numbers far outpace those for his predecessors. On providing real leadership, 33% have deep confidence, but 43% say they have no confidence. And thinking about appointing the best people to office, 32% say they have a lot of confidence in Trump, yet 45% say they have no confidence in him to choose appointees.

These numbers could shift as Trump fills out his cabinet and staff; polling measuring confidence in previous presidents-elect was conducted closer to their inauguration after many critical appointments had been made.

Several demographic divides that emerged during the campaign appear to persist post-election. Women are less apt to see Trump as a good president than are men, almost two-thirds of whites say he'll do a good job vs. about a third of non-whites, and residents of rural areas are more than twice as likely as urbanites to think Trump will do a good job. Among those in union households, a typically Democratic constituency where Trump had stronger appeal than most Republicans, 53% expect Trump to do a good job as president.

Overall, the share saying things in the US are going well today has dipped from its late-October high, 47% say things are going well, down from 54% then. That shift is mostly partisan. While there has been an uptick in the share of Republicans who think things are going well (from 21% to 32%), the share of Democrats who say the same has dropped about twenty points (85% to 66%).

About half of Americans overall say that four years from now, they expect the country to be better off than it is today, 46% say it'll be worse off and just 3% say it'll be the same. That's worse than impressions of how the country would be after four years of Obama, but a little better than assessments of how it'd be doing four years in to George W. Bush's presidency.

The CNN/ORC Poll was conducted by telephone from November 17 through 20 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.