March 13, 2016
Donald Trump says he is a truthful man. “Maybe truthful to a fault,” he boasted last week at a North Carolina rally where one of his supporters sucker punched a protester.
But truthful he is not.
With the GOP front-runner scooping up delegates in a march toward the Republican nomination, POLITICO subjected a week’s worth of his words to our magazine’s fact-checking process. We chronicled 4.6 hours of stump speeches and press conferences, from a rally in Concord, N.C., on Monday to a rally on Friday in St. Louis.
The result: more than five dozen statements deemed mischaracterizations, exaggerations, or simply false – the kind of stuff that would have been stripped from one of our stories, or made the whole thing worthy of the spike. It equates to roughly one misstatement every five minutes on average.
From warning of the death of Christianity in America to claiming that he is taking no money from donors, the Manhattan billionaire and reality-show celebrity said something far from truthful many times over to the thousands of people packed into his raucous rallies. His remarks represent an extraordinary mix of inaccurate claims about domestic and foreign policy and personal and professional boasts that rarely measure up when checked against primary sources.
Many were straight-up wrong, such as his claim that the United States has a “$500 billion a year trade deficit with China,” which has been debunked over and over by fact checkers, and his statement that he never settles lawsuits, when in fact he has.
In other instances, Trump stretches the limits of reality to distort the records of his rivals. Marco Rubio was a main target last week and saw Trump twist the truth about his immigration position to warn voters that the senator is “totally in favor of amnesty.”
Then there are the seemingly small falsehoods, piled one atop another. Trump misstates the timing of things – an omnibus spending bill, for example, was called “the craziest thing I’ve ever seen six weeks ago” when in fact it was a spending package passed in December. He exaggerates polls and rankings of other things – such as his position among Hispanics and how he performs in Wall Street Journal polls. He even claims ownership of a successful winery that denies any ownership tie to the GOP front-runner.
That Trump so frequently ventures so far from the truth perhaps shouldn’t surprise given how much of his campaign is unorthodox. Offensive barbs against Muslims, Mexicans, women and people with disabilities would have quickly sunk the fortunes of other White House candidates but they haven’t hurt the real estate mogul’s standing in the polls, or, more importantly, with Republican voters.
Certainly, many politicians stretch the truth – the practice of political fact-checking began long before the 2016 election cycle. But none so much as Trump. These untruths – strung together as they are in all of his speeches – have helped drive one of the most rapid ascents in modern presidential campaign history. Stephen Colbert once invented a word to define the political discourse of the time. “Truthiness,” the comedian declared on his debut episode in 2005, was the truth as felt in one’s heart and gut, not what was written up in reference books. A decade later, Trump has taken the idea and run (for president) with it.
The Trump campaign did not respond to attempts to get comment for this story or these individual instances of inaccuracies.
Here’s POLITICO’s run-down of a week in the life of a Donald Trump fact-check:
***
“WE DON’T WIN ANYMORE”: TRADE AND ECONOMICS
“$500 billion a year trade deficit with China.” (March 7 rally in Concord, N.C., and at least four other times last week)
That’s overstating the case by $134 billion. The imbalance peaked at $366 billion in 2015.
“You have Japan, where the cars come in by the hundreds of thousands, they pour off the boats. ... [W]e send them like nothing. We send them nothing, by comparison, nothing.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C. and at least one other time)
The United States exported $62 billion worth of goods to Japan last year.
“We have a trade deficit with Japan of over $100 billion a year.” (March 8 victory press conference in Jupiter, Fla. and at least one other time)
The trade deficit with Japan in 2015 was about $69 billion.
“We’re losing our jobs and the politicians don’t tell you that.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
Politicians from both parties rail against unemployment and outsourcing. For example, the Obama White House in 2012 put out a fact sheet with “outsourcing” in the title.
“We don’t win at trade. We lose to everybody at trade. Trade we lose to everybody.” (March 11 in St. Louis)
In 2015, the U.S. had trade surpluses with a number of countries including Hong Kong, the Netherlands, the UAE and Australia.
“Remember we used to have Made in the USA, right? When was the last time you’ve seen it? You don’t see that anymore. You don’t see that anymore.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
The U.S. Economics and Statistics Administration authored a report called “What Is Made In America?” in 2014 that found that U.S. manufacturers sold $4.4 trillion of goods that classify as “Made in the U.S.A.” Manufacturing contributes $2.17 trillion to the U.S. economy and employs 12.33 million Americans.
“We have lousy health-care, where it’s going up 35, 45, 55 percent.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
Premiums rose by an average of 5.8 percent a year since Obama took office, compared to 13.2 percent in the nine years prior, Politifact found in October.
“If you look at the jobs reports, which are totally phony, because if you stop looking for a job you are essentially considered employed.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
In the way the unemployment rate is calculated, discouraged workers who give up on looking for a job leave the workforce so they don’t count toward unemployment, but they don’t count as employed either.
“I know there are some companies where the people were full time for 25 years. Now they’re part-timers and they go out and get another job, and that has to do solely with Obamacare.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C. and at least one other time)
There are many reasons Americans tend to change jobs more often and work on a part-time basis more than they used to, and the trend predates Obamacare.
***
“LIKE SWISS CHEESE”: IMMIGRATION
“The migration, they’re coming across. Obama wants to bring thousands and thousands of people in. He has no idea who they are.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C. and at least one other time)
No one has suggested accepting refugees without screening them for security, a process that refugee advocates currently call daunting and far too time consuming.
About Rubio: “He’s totally in favor of amnesty.” (March 9 in Fayetteville, N.C.)
Rubio opposed amnesty while running for Senate but, in an effort to draft compromise legislation, co-sponsored a bill that included a path to citizenship. That’s not the same as blanket amnesty, he said in the Jan. 28 debate.
“Really they’ve shut Christianity down.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
Seven in 10 Americans identify as Christian, according to Pew.
***
“SELF-FUNDING”: CAMPAIGN FINANCE
“I’ve spent the least money and I’m by far number 1. So I’ve spent the least.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
As of Jan. 31, Trump’s campaign had spent $23.9 million, more than John Kasich’s campaign, which has spent $7.2 million, or $19.5 million if you include outside groups supporting him.
“I’m self-funding my campaign.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C., and at least two other times)
“I’m not taking money. ... I’m not taking. I spent a lot of money. I don’t take.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
“I’m not going to take any money. I don’t want any money. ... You know, I’ve self-funded my campaign. ... Right now, I’m into, you would know better than me, maybe $30 million, maybe more.” (March 11 press conference in Palm Beach)
There’s a big blue “DONATE” button in the top right corner of his campaign website. As of Jan. 31, his campaign had accepted $7.5 million from donors not named Donald J. Trump. Trump gave his campaign only $250,318. He lent another $17.5 million, but that’s repayable at any time until shortly after the election.
“I’m already in for $30 million cash.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
Not unless he’s made a lot more contributions since Jan. 31. As of then he had only contributed $250,318, plus the loan of $17.5 million.
“I think I have $50 million of negative ads against me in Florida. $50 million. Somebody said $50 million.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
As of last Friday, outside groups had spent $15 million in Florida.
“So many horrible, horrible things said about me in one week. $38 million worth of horrible lies.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Every Republican dollar not spent by Trump on TV and radio from March 1 through 7 comes to $10.57 million, according to The Tracking Firm, a service that monitors media buys. And not all of that money was negative against Trump.
“How many times do you think Marco and Ted and all of them were calling their super PAC? Is that right? It’s called life. ... They talk to their super PAC. They’re not supposed to but that’s the way life works.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Trump provided no evidence that Rubio and Cruz talk to their super PACs. Candidates coordinating with super PACs is against the law; Trump has not filed a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission.
“In New Hampshire, as an example, I spent $1.5 million and somebody else spent $48 million. I was one, the other person was number five.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Trump actually spent $3.1 million in New Hampshire, not $1.5 million, according to Politifact. The Bush campaign and super PAC actually spent $36 million in the state, not $48 million. Bush also came in fourth in New Hampshire, not fifth.
“Countries have lobbyists also. They have lobbyists. They have their donors.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
Foreign countries can and do hire representatives in Washington, registered under the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act. But foreign nationals are not allowed to contribute to political campaigns.
***
“NASTY GUY”: ATTACKING HIS RIVALS
“I have not even focused on Hillary yet. ... I haven’t even started with her other than four weeks ago.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Months ago, in December, Trump said Clinton’s bathroom break during a Democratic debate was “disgusting” and Barack Obama “schlonged” her in the 2008 primaries.
“Little Marco Rubio. You know, he’s a no-show in the U.S. Senate. He never goes to vote.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
Rubio missed 229 of 1,517 votes between January 2011 and March 2016, according to GovTrack.us. That’s 15 percent. The median record for missed votes for senators currently serving is 1.7 percent.
“Wasn’t that funny last night when Cruz said, ‘I’m the only one that can beat Donald Trump. I have demonstrated that I can beat him. I won five states.’” (March 11 in St. Louis)
Cruz correctly stated he won eight states, not five, according to the debate transcript.
“Ohio got lucky because they struck oil. And the budget of Ohio went up more than any budget in the entire United States. Higher than any budget.” (March 11 press conference in Palm Beach)
Ohio’s budget increased from $55.9 billion in 2010 to $64 billion in 2015. North Dakota’s increased more in percentage terms, and New York’s in dollar terms, according to data from the National Association of State Budget Officers.
***
“EVERYBODY LIKES ME”: POLLS
“One of the polls just came out, and a number of them have just come out. I’m beating Hillary Clinton quite easily, thank you.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C. and at least one other time)
Trump is likely referring to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll from mid-February, which showed him two points ahead of Clinton. A clear majority of other polls show she would beat him.
“After Paris, all of a sudden it started changing. We started getting polls in. And everybody liked Trump from the standpoint of ISIS, from the standpoint of the military.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C. and at least one other time)
After the Paris attacks, fewer than half (42 percent) of GOP respondents in a Washington Post-ABC poll said Trump was the best candidate to best handle the threat of terrorism.
“They do a poll in South Carolina, [Lindsey Graham] endorses somebody else and the poll in South Carolina has me at 47.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Trump never topped 42 percent in all the polls collected by Real Clear Politics and won the state with 32.5 percent of the vote.
“Upstate New York I poll higher than anybody ever.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Hillary Clinton would beat Trump 56 percent to 33 percent in upstate New York, according to a recent Siena College poll. The same poll found that the only region in New York he would win is by 5 points in the state’s suburban areas.
“They [the WSJ/NBC poll] had me practically dying in South Carolina the day before. ... And it looked like I was really in trouble and then I won in a landslide. The poll was wrong.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
The last South Carolina NBC/WSJ poll had Trump at 28 percent versus Cruz at 23 percent. A national WSJ/NBC poll around the same time had Cruz ahead of Trump 28 percent to 26 percent.
“Then all of a sudden they [WSJ/NBC] come up with this poll that was very close. They put it on the front-page of the Wall Street Journal, front-page. They never do that. ... I never do well in the Wall Street Journal polls; it’s set against me.” (March 11 in St. Louis)
The Journal routinely covers polls on its front page, and Trump does well in many of them. For example, a headline from mid-January reads: “Poll: Donald Trump Widens His Lead in Republican Presidential Race”.
“We’re winning every poll with the Hispanics.” (March 9 in Fayetteville, N.C.)
A Washington Post-Univision poll in February found that 8 in 10 registered Hispanic voters viewed Trump unfavorably.
***
“NOBODY IS GOING TO MESS WITH US”: SECURITY
“We have tremendous problems with crime and other things.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
Crime rates have declined dramatically since the 1990s and remain at historically low levels.
“If you look at the Iran deal, where we give a terror nation $150 billion” and “got nothing”. (March 11 in St. Louis and March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
Credible estimates vary for the value of sanctions relief to Iran, topping out at $100 billion. But it’s false to suggest the U.S. gains nothing from the deal. Iran agreed to ship uranium out of the country, dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges and accept rigorous inspections.
“The Gulf states aren’t spending. The Gulf states have so much money, they’re not spending anything. By the way, they’re not taking anybody, they’re not taking, they’re not spending.” (March 7 rally in Madison, Miss.)
At a February London aid conference, Gulf states pledged at least $537 million to help mitigate the Syrian crisis, and the United Arab Emirates has accepted more than 100,000 Syrian nationals since the civil war began in 2011.
ISIS drowns “people in these massive steel cages where 40, 50, 60 people they dump it and they pull it up half an hour later with 50 people dead.” (March 9 in Fayetteville, N.C.)
Last June, ISIS released video of the group drowning five Iraqis in a cage. There are no reports of 40 to 60 victims.
“Eight weeks ago, they signed a budget that is so bad. It funds ISIS.” (March 9 in Fayetteville, N.C.)
The omnibus spending bill, passed in December, is not strictly a budget, and it’s not clear what part of it Trump thinks gives money to ISIS. The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for a reference on this specific claim.
***
“BIGGEST,” “BEST,” “MOST BEAUTIFUL”: PERSONAL BOASTS
“It turned out I’m much richer than people think.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss.)
Trump says he’s worth more than $10 billion. Forbes Magazine says he’s worth $4.5 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index estimated his net worth at $2.9 billion.
“By the way, four times on the cover of Time Magazine over the last number of months. ... I think I was on the cover of Time twice over 30 years and now I think I’ve been almost, I think it’s four times in the last three or four months.” (March 7 in Concord, N.C.)
“It is a movement. It’s been covered on Time magazine covers many many times.” (March 11 in St. Louis)
Trump has been on the cover of Time three times since he started running for president nine months ago, not four times over the last three or four months. Before his presidential run, he was on the cover just once, in 1989, not twice. In the last four months, he’s been on the cover twice, not three times.
“I built an unbelievable, some of the greatest assets in the world, very little debt, tremendous cash flow, tremendous. ... Almost all of my businesses work.” (March 7 in Madison, Miss. and at least one other time)
Four of Trump’s companies have declared bankruptcy, meaning they could not repay their debts. For example, the Trump Plaza Hotel declared bankruptcy in 1992 with $550 million in debt. The Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy in 2004 carrying an estimated $1.8 billion in debt. In December 2008, Trump Entertainment Resorts couldn’t pay a $53.1 million interest payment for a bond.
“I don’t settle lawsuits. ... I don’t do it.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
In 2013, Trump settled with condo buyers who had sued over a project in Baja California.
“It’s the largest winery on the East Coast. I own it 100 percent. No mortgage. No debt. You can all check. You have to go check the records, folks. In fact, the press, I’m asking you, please check.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
Trump Winery in Charlottesville is not the largest vineyard or winery on the East Coast, according to the National Association of American Wineries.
And the winery’s own website denies that Trump owns it. “Trump Winery is a registered trade name of Eric Trump Wine Manufacturing LLC, which is not owned, managed or affiliated with Donald J. Trump, The Trump Organization or any of their affiliates.”
“We make the finest wine. As good a wine as you can get anywhere in the world.” (March 8 in Jupiter, Fla.)
None of the wines from Trump Winery made the top 100 list of the best wines in 2015 as ranked by Wine Spectator Magazine. Looking at just Virginia wines, none of Trump’s wines were finalists in the flagship 2016 Governors’ Cup.
“I’ve been hearing from virtually everybody in the Republican Party and they’re congratulating me and they’re saying, we’re going to get together.” (March 11 in Palm Beach)
There are many Republicans who are not engaging with Trump or congratulating him.
***
“ABSOLUTE SLEAZE”: THE PRESS
“The only way, now everybody’s talking about how massive these crowds are, the only way they find out about the crowds, the only way is with the protestors.” (March 9 in Fayetteville, N.C.)
The press has long noted the size of Trump’s audiences with or without protestors. For example, last August, CNN covered Trump’s crowd of 30,000 at an Alabama football stadium.
No comments:
Post a Comment