John Bacon
Aug 7, 2017
Since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, the United Nations has imposed ever-tightening sanctions on the rogue regime to force it to halt its weapons programs. Yet none achieved that goal, and the reason is always the same, foreign affairs experts say.
China.
China's government — North Korea's neighbor, chief political ally and economic lifeline — has supported the sanctions in word. But in action it continues to prop up Kim Jong Un's autocratic rule.
"The pattern has always been the international community gets excited," following nuclear or missile tests, said Jay Lefkowitz, a former U.S. special envoy on human rights in North Korea. "China makes promises, then they abandon those promises."
The latest sanctions, approved unanimously by the U.N. Security Council on Saturday, won China's vote and verbal support a day later when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a stern warning to his North Korean counterpart to avoid another missile launch or nuclear test.
Even so, China has continued to provide North Korea critical aid even in the wake of weapons tests in violation of U.N. resolutions — because it does not want to cause a collapse of the North Korean regime, which serves as a buffer between China and U.S.-ally South Korea, where 28,500 American troops are stationed.
"China is the essential player," Lefkowitz said. "China is the nation that could turn the lights out once and for all in North Korea."
Saturday's sanctions ban North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood, which are worth about $1 billion or a third of the country's foreign revenue. China accounts for an estimated 90% of that trade.
Harry Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest, said the new sanctions "will succeed or fail based on what China does," and he predicts what China does will be more of the same: "talk tough on North Korea and yet provide direct and indirect aid to keep (its) economy moving."
“China fears that if they put too much pressure on the Kim regime, it could collapse," Kazianis said. "Chinese government leaders have told me on many occasions they fear that they do not want to be the reason millions of starving North Koreans stream toward their borders."
"China also fears creating a situation where if North Korea were to collapse there could be a civil war, where rival factions sling atomic or chemical weapons at each other and millions would likely die," he added.
So far, nine years of loosely enforced sanctions have allowed North Korea to conduct five nuclear tests and dozens of missile launches. Just this summer, North Korea tested a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
North Korea is likely to perfect a nuclear-armed missile that could strike the U.S. within one to two years, according to U.S. and South Korean government estimates.
The North Korean regime said it is rushing to develop nuclear missiles to deter the U.S. from an attack.
In an apparent response, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the Trump administration does not favor regime change and seeks a diplomatic solution to halt the North's weapons program.
"Clearly Team Trump is running out of time when it comes to North Korea," Kazianis said. "If these sanctions can't rein in North Korea, President Trump will have to get much tougher on Kim Jong Un. And that means bringing the administration into a direct face-off with China."
"The ball is in China's court."
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If they have been living for the past 50 years under economic sanctions, additional sanctions won’t change their lifestyles.
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