By
Michael Birnbaum
January
16, 2017
BRUSSELS — European leaders grappled with
the jolting reality of President-elect Donald Trump’s skepticism of the
European Union on Monday, saying they might have to stand without the United
States at their side during the Trump presidency.
The possibility of an unprecedented breach in
transatlantic relations came after Trump – who embraced anti-E.U. insurgents
during his campaign and following his victory — said in weekend remarks that
the 28-nation European Union was bound for breakup and that he was indifferent
to its fate. He also said NATO’s current configuration was “obsolete” even as
he professed commitment to Europe’s defense.
Trump’s attitudes have raised alarm bells
across Europe, which is facing a wave of
elections this year in which anti-immigrant, Euroskeptic leaders
could gain in power. Most mainstream leaders have committed
to working with Trump after his inauguration Jan. 20, even as they
expressed hope that he would moderate his views once he took office. His
continued hard line has created the painful realization in Europe that they may
now have to live without the full backing of their oldest, strongest
partner. The European Union underpins much of their continent’s post-World War
II prosperity, but skeptics have attacked it in recent years as a dysfunctional
bloc that undermines finances and security.
“We will cooperate with him on all levels, of
course,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters in Berlin. But she said
Europeans would need to take responsibility for themselves.
“We Europeans have our destiny in our own
hands,” she said.
The full ramifications of
a potential breakdown in transatlantic ties are so extensive they are
difficult to total. U.S. guarantees underpin European security. The United
States and the 500-million-people-strong European Union are each other’s most
important partner. For decades, European nations and the United States have
worked tightly together on issues of war, peace and wealth.
Trump appears skeptical that the European
Union matters to American security or economic growth.
“People want their own identity, so if you ask
me, others, I believe others will leave,” Trump said of the European
Union in a weekend
interview with the Times of London and Germany’s Bild newspaper. He
said he did not care about the European Union’s future. “I don’t think it
matters much for the United States,” he said.
“You look at the European Union and it’s
Germany. Basically a vehicle for Germany,” Trump said. He added that Merkel
made a “very catastrophic mistake” in opening Europe’s doors to migrants and
refugees.
And he offered no special credit to European
nations for being long-standing U.S. allies, saying he would trust Merkel and
Russian President Vladimir Putin alike at the outset of his presidency.
“I start off trusting both,” he said. “But
let’s see how long that lasts. It may not last long at all.”
Trump offered mixed messages about the NATO
defense alliance, which is dominated by the United States, calling it
“obsolete” and “very unfair to the United States” that most nations were not
meeting their voluntary defense spending commitments. “With that being said,
NATO is very important to me,” Trump said.
The Kremlin embraced Trump’s comments, with a
spokesman agreeing that NATO was obsolete. British leaders also welcomed
Trump’s willingness to negotiate a trade deal in the wake of their nations
departure from the E.U.
But among most U.S. allies, Trump’s attitudes
“caused astonishment and excitement, not just in Brussels,” German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier told reporters in Brussels on Monday, where he
was meeting with other European foreign ministers at a previously scheduled
gathering. Coming directly from a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens
Stoltenberg, Steinmeier said NATO had listened to Trump’s comments “with
concern.”
The incoming U.S. president is the first
American leader since World War II not to support European integration. The European
Union has long been
considered to be in the U.S. interest, since it created a unified
market for U.S. businesses, provided a bulwark against communism during the
Cold War and helped quell the bloody slaughter that cost U.S. lives, among
others, in the first half of the 20th century. After the breakup of the Soviet
Union, the European Union expanded eastward into formerly communist nations, a
development that leaders there say helped bring rule of law and stability as
they modernized their economies.
Steinmeier said that Germany was still trying
to assess what U.S. foreign policy will actually be. For example, James
Mattis, the retired general nominated to be Trump’s defense secretary, offered
straightforward support for NATO and skepticism of Russia at his confirmation
hearing last week.
Other leaders said that Europe’s future does
not rise or fall based on attitudes from the White House.
“What we are looking for is a partnership based
on common interests with the United States,” E.U. foreign chief Federica
Mogherini told reporters. “We always like to be in good company, but we
determine our policies by ourselves.”
Some analysts noted that after Britain’s vote
to leave the European Union, support for the E.U. in other nations actually
increased. They wondered whether Trump’s frontal challenge to the bloc might
have a similar effect. But one said that if global instability increases as a
result of Trump’s unpredictable policies, the stress could weigh on the already
taxed European Union.
“Over the last decades, the United States has
played a huge stabilizing role. And when this stabilizing role of the US around
the world falls away, because they’re doing transactional deals, that will
create lots and lots of messes which will implicate European interests,” said
Stefan Lehne, a former Austrian diplomat who now works at Carnegie Europe, a
Brussels-based think tank.
But one prominent U.S. advocate of European
unity was concerned about Europe’s ability to weather the Trump tsunami.
As the European Union battles skeptical forces,
“U.S. cheerleading and support has been welcomed,” outgoing U.S. Ambassador to
the E.U. Anthony Gardner said last week.
“If there isn’t someone like a Kerry or an Obama … reminding people of the
importance of the European Union, then there’s a vacuum.”
French leaders, who face tough presidential
elections in April, also appeared to be scrambling to handle the fallout. Trump
allies have expressed support for the anti-E.U., anti-immigrant National Front
party, whose leader, Marine Le Pen, is doing well in opinion polls. Le Pen
lunched in the basement of the Trump Tower last week in the company of a man
who has served as an informal conduit for Trump’s contacts with Euroskeptic
European leaders, although the Trump transition team denied any formal meeting
with the French leader.
“The best response is European unity,” said
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault. “As with the case of Brexit, the
best way to defend Europe is to remain united. This is a bit of an invitation
that we are making to Mr. Trump. To remain a bloc. Not to forget that the force
of Europeans is in their unity.”
But the most wishful approach to Trump’s
declarations may have come from Luxembourg, where the nation’s top diplomat
said he hoped Trump was still in campaign mode.
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