Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Trump Talk to Focus on Borders, Not Deportation

August 31, 2016

Donald Trump will frame a hotly anticipated speech on immigration Wednesday in dramatic fashion, with a surprise meeting beforehand in Mexico with President Enrique Pena Nieto.

The GOP nominee tweeted late Tuesday that he accepted Pena Nieto's invitation to visit, an offer also extended to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The two men will meet at the presidential palace in Mexico City, the New York Times reported.

Trump’s campaign hopes the impromptu trip will be seen as a “decisive and presidential move” in conjunction with the Republican candidate’s major immigration speech. The address, slated for Wednesday evening in Phoenix, is expected to lay out Trump’s “broader vision” on immigration policy — one that his aides insisted would not depart from what Trump has promoted throughout his campaign.

But, following a week in which Trump and his allies have seemed to waffle on his precise policy views, the speech will likely do less to clarify Trump’s position on whether and how to deport millions of undocumented immigrants than to redirect the issue toward less perilous political turf.

"Nothing has changed with Mr. Trump's stance. He's been remarkably consistent,” spokesman Jason Miller said Tuesday on “Fox and Friends.” “He is going to stop illegal immigration. He's the one candidate to do it.”

The Clinton campaign released a statement in response to Trump’s trip, saying, “What ultimately matters is what Donald Trump says to voters in Arizona, not Mexico, and whether he remains committed to the splitting up of families and deportation of millions."

Trump has oriented his presidential campaign for months around a hardline position on immigration, promising a wall along the border with Mexico, which Mexico would fund, and proposing a “deportation force” to address undocumented immigrants living in the United States.

But Trump has recently confronted the potential pitfalls of this stance in the context of the general election, for which he urgently needs to broaden his appeal. During the past week, Trump appeared uncertain of his immigration stance, publicly entertaining the option of a more relaxed policy.

At a Fox News town hall last week, Trump said he would be open to “softening” on immigration, suggesting a path to legalized status for undocumented immigrants already in the country but otherwise in good standing.

But Trump later walked back from that apparent shift, telling CNN a few days later that “There is no path to legalization unless people leave the country.”
“I’ve heard people say it’s a hardening, actually,” he added of his evolving views. Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, a close adviser to Trump, acknowledged to the Washington Post that Trump was “wrestling with that issue.”

Trump now appears to have settled on a new manner of discussing his immigration views, if not a revised stance. He will focus on border security, as has been the tack of many Republicans, while leaving the question of illegal immigrants already in the country to sort out later.

“He wasn’t softening on anything. He didn’t change his stance on anything,” Donald Trump Jr. said Tuesday on CNN. But while Donald Trump still plans to deport illegal immigrants in the country, his son insisted, “You have to start with baby steps.” 

As Trump shifts his focus to border security, he will not budge on his signature proposal to build a border wall at Mexico’s expense — which has literally become a rallying cry among his supporters at Trump’s events.

"We're going to build a wall, we're going to secure our borders, we're going to enforce our immigration laws, we're going to end sanctuary cities, we're going to pass E-Verify, we're going to uphold the Constitution," Miller said. 

Trump’s new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, told Fox News Radio on Tuesday that securing the border with a wall would “absolutely” take precedence over mass deportations.

“That is the piece that people feel has not been done,” Conway said.

As Trump shifts his focus and refines his rhetoric, however, Clinton is aiming to hold him to his most hardline views, including Trump’s previous statements that every undocumented immigrant must face deportation.

“We need to believe him when he bullies and threatens to throw out every immigrant in the country,” Clinton told CNN last week.

Trump’s challenge will be to counter Clinton’s rhetoric with messaging to stress compassion, helping him appeal to undecided voters — while still speaking to his campaign’s broader “law and order” theme that energizes his core supporters. It is a tightrope act that he has begun to execute during the past week, but one his campaign hopes to conclude with his speech Wednesday.


“His position is going to be fair,” Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Sunday on “Meet The Press,” “but his position is going to be humane.”

One of Trump’s biggest lies is falling apart. So naturally, he’s blaming the media for it.

August 29, 2016

THE MORNING PLUM:

The Grand Trumpian Immigration Follies of 2016 are set to take another turn: Donald Trump has now announced that he will give a major speech (does any Trump speech fail to merit that label?) on the issue on Wednesday, in which he is expected to finally clarify his stance on mass deportations. Trump veep candidate Mike Pence promised yesterday that Trump would clarify it.

But it is more likely that instead of clarifying his stance on mass deportations, Trump will instead try to shift the subject away from them entirely. That’s because Trump’s big lie about mass deportations — i.e., that he would carry them out swiftly and humanely, thus Making America Great Again — is falling apart. And he’s now trying to replace that lie by foregrounding another lie.

Trump previewed his speech at a rally over the weekend, at which he said this:

“In recent days, the media, as it usually does, has missed the whole point on immigration. They have missed the whole point. All the media wants to talk about is the 11 million people — or more, or less, they have no idea what the number is because we have no control over our country; they have no idea what it is — that are here illegally.

“But my priority, and really, it’s for the well being of everybody, but in particular the 300 million Americans and more, and all of our Hispanic citizens, and all of our African American citizens, legal residents who want a secure border. And I mean secure….my goal is to provide good jobs, and even great jobs, good schools and safety, to every Hispanic community, African American community, in the country….we can’t do that if we don’t secure our border….On Day One, I’m going to begin swiftly removing criminal illegal immigrants from this country.”

The idea that we have “no control” over our border is not true. As Jerry Markon reported, as of one year ago, most available evidence indicated that thanks in part to stepped up border security efforts in recent years, “illegal immigration flows have fallen to their lowest level in at least two decades.” But beyond that, let’s pause to marvel at the spectacle of Trump blaming the media for this focus on mass deportations. That promise has been key to Trump’s candidacy for over a year. As early as August of 2015 Trump was already saying on national television that all undocumented immigrants in this country “have to go.” A month later he said that his plan was to round them up “in a humane way.” A couple months after that Trump indicated that “they’re gonna have to go out,” and if not, “we don’t have a country.” In February of this year Trump said: “We have at least 11 million people in this country that came in illegally. They will go out.”


Now Trump insists that the aspect of his plan that really matters is his pledge to secure the border. Now, it’s true that Trump has long emphasized border security. But Trump also frequently vowed mass deportations, and that probably helped him win the nomination. Poll after poll after poll showed that GOP voters supported this goal.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Trump’s Tax Withholding Is a Signal

By JOSHUA D. BLANK
Aug. 29, 2016

Of all Donald Trump ’s portrayals of his tax returns, including “extremely complex,” “beautiful” and “very big,” no phrase has ignited more passion or dismay than “none of your business.” Hillary Clinton has posted to her campaign website full copies of her tax returns since 2007, as well as returns for her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine. Yet Mr. Trump refuses to follow suit.

Although Mr. Trump is breaking with precedent—every Republican presidential nominee since 1980 has released personal tax returns—he is not breaking the law. The Internal Revenue Code clearly provides that Mr. Trump’s “returns and return information shall be confidential” unless he consents to disclosure. There’s no exception for taxpayers who happen to be running for president.

Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) has been trying to change that since May, when he introduced the Presidential Tax Transparency Act. If signed into law, it would require the presidential nominees of major parties to make their three most recent years of tax returns public by filing them with the Federal Election Commission. In a statement announcing the bill, Sen. Wyden argued that “tax returns deliver honest answers to key questions,” including whether the candidate pays taxes, donates to charity or keeps money offshore.

While tax returns can answer those questions, it would be misguided to mandate their disclosure. As the law stands, candidates must disclose voluntarily, which provides voters with a valuable signal. The same way that wearing a suit to a job interview at a law firm suggests professionalism, a presidential candidate’s choosing to post personal tax returns indicates a willingness to be transparent and forthcoming.

Since the role of president often involves candidly communicating the government’s actions and decisions to the public, many voters see openness as a prerequisite. Consequently, they may not trust or support a candidate who decides to break with tradition and withhold tax returns. They might even speculate that this indicates the candidate isn’t serious about wanting the job.

If Sen. Wyden’s bill became law, and presidential nominees were legally required to publish their tax returns, voters would lose this signal. If every applicant for the law firm position were legally required to wear a business suit to the interview, the partners could no longer easily weed out the people who otherwise would have showed up in a T-shirt.

Moreover, candidates’ tax returns are less revealing than advocates of mandatory disclosure suggest. A motivated accountant could pass dubious income—from Russia, say—through other legal entities such as limited liability companies to prevent its true source from appearing on the candidate’s personal tax return.

Similar tricks can be played to minimize the appearance of income and wealth. For instance, in the year of disclosure a candidate could overpay the IRS and file a return showing significant tax liability. Then he could request a refund in a future year not subject to disclosure.


As the law stands, presidential candidates must choose whether or not to disclose their personal tax returns—and for good reason. If Donald Trump continues to refuse calls to publicly post his returns, it’s up to voters to decide what that says about him.

Donald Trump’s New Ad Reflects Uncertainty in Tax Plan

By RICHARD RUBIN
Aug 29, 2016 

Besides deep tax cuts, what’s in Donald Trump’s tax plan? Mr. Trump hasn’t filled in all the details, and his own campaign ads don’t seem to know.

The Republican candidate released a 30-second spot on Monday that touts his proposed tax cuts and their economic benefits. But the footnotes in the ad cite Mr. Trump’s 2015 tax proposal, which he revised and left incomplete this month, along with a House Republican tax plan that he hasn’t fully embraced.

Last year, as he was running for the Republican nomination, Mr. Trump proposed a tax plan that would reduce federal revenue by about 22% over a decade and push 33 million more households off the income tax rolls.

On Aug. 8, after months of speculation about potential changes to reduce the size of the tax cuts, Mr. Trump gave a speech in Detroit in which he adopted the House Republicans’ individual income tax rates – with a top rate of 33% as opposed to the 25% in his own original plan. He also agreed with their plan to let companies write off capital investments immediately instead of deducting them over time.

But he was silent or opaque on other aspects of his original plan, such as whether he would continue to let individuals with income up to $25,000 and married couples with incomes up to $50,000 fill out a one-page tax form that says “I win’ and pay no income taxes.

He also stuck with business-income tax rates of 15%, below the House GOP plan. And advisers said Mr. Trump was resisting the House GOP’s proposed limits on business interest. He also hasn’t said whether he’s keeping his original proposal on taxing U.S. companies’ foreign income immediately or taking the House approach, which would tax companies based on the location of their sales, not their profits.

In that Detroit speech Mr. Trump also promised more details in the days ahead. Since then, the campaign has explained more about his proposed child-care deduction would work but hasn’t offered a complete plan.


The campaign didn’t respond immediately to a request for comment on Monday.

THE GREAT TRUMP TAX MYSTERIES: IS HE HIDING LOOPHOLES, ERRORS, OR SOMETHING MORE SERIOUS?

JUNE 23, 2016

Why won’t Donald Trump release his taxes? An investigation into the G.O.P. candidate’s finances—the extensive deductions he could claim, the F.E.C. filings from his Scottish and Irish golf resorts, and his declarations to the British government—reveals a disturbing pattern of mistakes, hype, and contradictions.

“Taxation, in reality, is life,” said Sheldon Cohen, a former commissioner of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. “If you know the position a person takes on taxes, you can tell their whole philosophy. The tax code, once you get to know it, embodies all the essence of life: greed, politics, power, goodness

A rich person’s tax affairs will tell you lots about him or her—but the reverse is fuzzily true, too. Though Donald Trump has refused to release his tax returns, we can get a good idea of what’s in there if we start with what we know about his character and business affairs, then mix these up with the vast rich pudding of loopholes, abatements, and gray areas that wealthy folk in America use to milk the tax system. All this provides an entry into understanding Trump’s bewildering, ever evolving global business affairs, and helps answer some of the great questions of the day. How much is he really worth? Has he broken any laws? How much tax does he pay? Does he use tax havens?

It’s hard to get your arms around Trump’s business conglomerate, which is a patchwork of disparate “artful” deals and raids, strategy changes, bankruptcies, carefully laid plans, and high-energy whims. “I play it very loose,” Trump wrote in his book Trump: The Art of the Deal. “I don’t carry a briefcase. I try not to schedule too many meetings. I leave my door open. You can’t be imaginative or entrepreneurial if you’ve got too much structure. I prefer to come to work each day and just see what develops. There is no typical week in my life.”

Trump isn’t nearly the real-estate player he once was, particularly since some of his companies went through high-profile bankruptcies in the early 1990s. In a ranking of New York condominium developers last September, for instance, Trump didn’t even make the top 20. In Atlantic City, whose real-estate sector he once dominated, the Trump Plaza closed in 2014; he sold the Trump Marina (now the Golden Nugget) in 2011 to Landry’s, a Houston-based gaming-and-restaurant company; and activist investor Carl Icahn now owns the Trump Taj Mahal. (Trump is eager to point out, however, that he made money on his Atlantic City adventure. “I never went bankrupt,” he told me in the first of two telephone interviews. “I made a fortune in A.C., which a lot of people don’t understand.... I used a bankruptcy as a business tool: I made great deals.”)

Many bankers don’t lend to Trump now, burned by what some call “Donald risk,” a reference to the fact that some Wall Street banks have been left with pennies on the dollar through some of his maneuvers. (About his relationship with lenders, Trump says, “We have a lot of cash—we don’t need loans. Every bank wants to do business with us, literally every bank.”) There is still plenty of steel and concrete bearing his name in lights, but much of that is simply him taking licensing income and management fees from the people who actually financed, built, and own these properties. “People who are smart love my licensing deals because you don’t have any risk [and] you make tremendous amounts of cash,” Trump says

In his 92-page financial disclosure to the Federal Election Commission (F.E.C.) in July 2015 and in a second, 104-page disclosure last May, in both of which he calls himself “President of the United States of America” (Hillary humbly calls herself “Candidate for President”), he lists at least $1.5 billion in hard assets. Of this, a minimum of $787 million is in hotels and real estate such as Trump Tower, in Manhattan. There are also 16 golf-related businesses valued at more than $550 million, aircraft worth at least $58 million, $6 million in vineyards, and $4.3 million in entertainment ventures. These are lower-bound numbers: categories include “over $50 million,” with no upper limit. (The main purpose of these disclosures isn’t to build a full picture of a candidate’s finances but to identify conflicts of interest.) Trump claimed to me that his net worth is “much more than $10 billion…. I don’t know how much more.” A Trump press release in July 2015 also claimed his net worth was “in excess of TEN BILLION DOLLARS,” though Fortune in May estimated it at $3.9 billion, and Bloomberg News reckoned it at $2.9 billion last July. (Michael Bloomberg, by comparison, is worth $45 billion, according to Forbes.)

All this keeps his tax advisers busy, doing imaginative things, such as putting goats on a golf course in New Jersey, to qualify for farmland tax reliefs. A picture he tweeted of him signing his tax returns—a stack of papers that rises above his head and out of the frame—points to the sheer byzantine scale of his tax affairs and a business empire that encompasses Trump Tower, Trump chocolate bars (shaped like gold ingots, naturally), and the intriguingly named Trump Follies LLC. His global interests stretch from Azerbaijan to China, India, Panama, Dubai, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and a few places in between. “I have 121 [foreign] deals either starting or under negotiation, pretty far down the line,” Trump boasts, citing “numerous deals” in China. “China likes Trump,” he adds, “even though I tell the country China is killing us…. It’s our fault, not China’s fault. I’m sure you read the recent articles that the young people of China really like Donald Trump.

Mitt Romney, whose own complex wealth and tax affairs contributed to his defeat at Barack Obama’s hands in 2012, speculates that the only logical explanation for Trump’s refusal to publish his returns is that there is “a bombshell” in there. “Given Mr. Trump’s equanimity with other flaws in his history,” he continued, “we can only assume it’s a bombshell of unusual size.”


BRILLIANT DEDUCTIONS

David Cay Johnston, one of the U.S.’s best-known tax writers, calls Trump “one of the major welfare kings of America,” because of his track record of playing the government for profit. Johnston’s 1992 book, Temples of Chance: How America Inc. Bought Out Murder Inc. to Win Control of the Casino Business, contains long sections about Trump and includes one of the few public sightings of his tax returns, which appeared on casino regulatory findings. They show that Trump paid a total of just under $72,000 in federal income taxes (on just over $219,000 of income) from 1975 to 1977, then 0 percent in 1978 and 1979. According to a Politico report, Trump again appeared to pay no federal taxes in 1991 and 1993 due to losses in his hotel and casino businesses. The suspicion is that he’s continued to pay little or no federal income tax ever since.

It’s a well-grounded suspicion, not just because of Trump’s reputation for hardball but also because he’s in real estate, which may be the most highly tax-subsidized sector of the American economy.

“Real estate is the gold mine of gold mines for people who know how to maneuver through it,” says Jack Blum, a Washington, D.C., lawyer and an expert in financial crime. “The potential for shenanigans is virtually unlimited, much more than other sectors. The only other one that might come close is petroleum.” Trump himself admits, “One of the big assets of real estate, you are allowed large deductions

There are a few big tax strategies in real estate, underpinning some of America’s greatest fortunes.

First, there’s depreciation. Cars, say, lose value, and it makes sense to set those real losses against tax. Buildings, though, generally appreciate in value—yet such is the power of the real-estate lobby that you still get the depreciation deduction, which is based on a formula.

Strategy number two: In theory you pay taxes on your gains when you sell up—but you can get out of that too by using another officially approved scheme, known as the “like-kind exchange.” Here, if you re-invest the proceeds of a sale into a qualifying real-estate project within 180 days, you can postpone paying the tax. The I.R.S. has interpreted this rule very broadly, says Ed Kleinbard, professor of law and business at the University of Southern California’s Gould School of Law and author of We Are Better than This, a book on the U.S. fiscal system. “So a swap of farmland for an office tower is viewed as a like-kind exchange. The trick in real estate is to keep all the balls in the air as best you can, until you die.”

As if that weren’t enough cream for the real-estate moguls, the sector is fueled by borrowing—and you can set the interest expenses against your income. Lenders will often give mortgages for 90 percent or more of a project’s value, meaning that very little of a developer’s money is involved. Interest and depreciation usually wash out the rental income. As Trump himself once put it, “Leverage: don’t make deals without it.

Today, however, Trump says, “I don’t need debt. I don’t have very much. I have about 3 percent debt.” When I point out that his F.E.C. disclosure lists debts of at least $315 million, he responds that this is 3 percent of $10 billion. True, but if you go with lower estimates of his wealth and higher estimates of his debt, it is considerably more.

There is a story in Washington, D.C., tax circles that Dan Rostenkowski, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee from 1981 to 1994, was so scandalized by the shamelessness of the real-estate sector’s tax perks that he threatened to make the sector tax-exempt—which, counter-intuitively, would have increased their tax payments considerably. “Tax exemption for real estate was a serious threat,” says John Buckley, a former chief tax counsel to the Ways and Means Committee. “It would have recognized that there would be no tax on real estate, but it would have disallowed the use of real-estate tax losses to offset other income.”

And this brings us to yet another avenue to tax-free living for real-estate moguls. These deductions can travel. If you are an active real-estate professional—that is, in part, if you spend at least half of your work time in real-estate activities—then you’re allowed to assemble all your losses and deductions, magpie-like, wherever and however you suffered them, whether it’s from Trump Tower or a Scottish golf course, and throw them all into one big pot. (When Trump was asked whether he was active in real estate, for tax purposes, he responded: “I don’t know how I am categorized, but I spend a lot of time on real estate … even during the campaign.”) You then stir in your federal income and hope those losses will offset it all, like one of those science experiments where you pour one liquid into another, brightly colored liquid to make it all go clear. With enough deductions, a real-estate mogul like Trump can zero out his federal income-tax bill.

If Trump is not considered active enough in real estate, however, he is covered by a different system, for investors, and those real-estate losses do not travel, says Lee Sheppard, a tax lawyer and widely read contributing editor at the trade publication Tax Notes. Trump told me he won’t release his tax returns yet because he’s under a “routine audit,” and Sheppard speculates that the audit could be about this very question: whether he is active enough in real estate to be able to use those real-estate losses to offset other income—something that would become a lot harder to argue, Buckley adds, if he were president.

Even if Trump can’t get to zero after taking advantage of all this, he need not fear: he may be able to deduct expenses incurred by his celebrity lifestyle. Sheppard explains this by citing comedian Carol Burnett, who starred in her own variety show on CBS, starting in 1967. “This really was the 60s,” says Sheppard. “When you came out on the stage you wore a sparkly evening gown.” In those days celebrities paid for their clothes, and Burnett wanted to take the gowns as business expenses. The I.R.S. fought her, but she argued successfully that she would not wear them to the grocery store: they were specific work garments. “Entertainers fight about this stuff with the I.R.S. all the time,” Sheppard says.

We can’t see such deductions without Trump’s tax returns, but we can see other things Trump has put into this pot. A Wall Street Journal analysis, for instance, shows that he was able to deduct $39.1 million from his 2005 federal income tax via a “conservation easement,” which meant he simply pledged not to build houses on a golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey, thus reducing the land’s value. Trump’s charitable deduction for the easement amounted to an estimated 2 percent of the entire U.S. total of conservation easements that year, and Trump has done it on at least four of his properties: Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach; his Seven Springs estate, in Westchester County, New York; Bedminster; and a golf driving range in California. When asked if he would curb tax privileges for real-estate moguls, if elected president, Trump said, “I’m not doing anything further with this.”

If Trump hasn’t yet gotten to zero, there’s still another tantalizing possibility: offshore tax havens. Sheppard thinks he doesn’t need to bother because “real estate in the U.S. is so juicy you don’t need tax havens.” Trump himself says, “I don’t use them. Honestly I think it’s more trouble than it’s worth: highly overrated,” he says. “They don’t work, and they cause lots of difficulty, and nobody knows what’s going on, and they are really not good…. There is greater incentive in many ways to keep your money in the U.S.”

But it isn’t strictly true that Trump doesn’t use them. He disclosed a company, DJ Aerospace Limited, which he set up in the tax haven of Bermuda in 1994. (Trump declined to respond to questions regarding this company and a handful of other questions as well.) And he also reportedly transferred more than 110 registered or pending trademarks to a holding company in Delaware, which many people view as a tax haven inside the U.S. because it is secretive and can help you avoid taxes in other states.

Other Trump tax-haven activity is harder to find, yet Kleinbard says you can’t rule it out, as when royalties are paid for the use of Trump trademarks for foreign projects he does own. (That Trump has refused to release his returns positively invites such speculation.

Many big businesses park foreign income in tax havens, to defer or escape tax: Apple alone holds an estimated $180 billion or more offshore. Could Donald Trump be doing the same? His brand names and trademarks are intangible assets separate from the man himself, and therefore are similar to the intangibles that drive the profits of U.S. tech firms. Could the non-U.S. rights to Trump’s very name be owned by an offshore tax-haven company? If so, as Kleinbard explained to me, the royalties might flow from a Donaldco in Delaware to a company higher up the corporate “tree” in the Netherlands, then further up to an Irish corporation resident in Bermuda (don’t ask), where they would ultimately be parked offshore as “stateless income,” incurring no tax. This might be Romney’s “bombshell.” (Romney should know. After all, he was found to be parking secret stuff in Bermuda.)

“Trump has sophisticated tax advisers,” says Kleinbard, “and I can’t find a technical tax reason why he wouldn’t have used Silicon Valley tax technologies to park his foreign royalties in an offshore tax haven at near-zero tax rates. If Trump didn’t do this, he might want to ask his advisers why they didn’t recommend it.”

Considering all these possible tax-avoidance strategies, the chances that Trump pays a reasonable tax rate are low. And, in fact, there is a more direct indication of this


In June, Aaron Elstein, of Crain’s, reported that Trump had qualified for several years for tax credits of around $300 under New York City’s School Tax Relief Program (STAR), a benefit open only to married couples whose annual income is less than half a million dollars. This is important for our story. Although we need to be careful not to confuse local taxes with federal taxes, you can extrapolate from one to the other: city and state tax returns normally base their taxable-income assessments on federal tax returns. The Crain’s story suggests Trump has pushed his federal taxable income down below $500,000—less than a thousandth of what he publicly says he earned last year. This indication isn’t watertight: there could be special adjustments between the federal tax return and the city-and-state one, and Trump may also be pushing his licensing income into Delaware to reduce his New York State taxable income. The mayor’s office was “reviewing” the case—but when Crain’s made a Freedom of Information request for Trump’s STAR application the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance said that, after a two-month search, no documents could be found. A Trump spokesperson said, “The city made a mistake and the money was returned.”

Is Trump’s Tax Plan Revenue Neutral?

October 1, 2015

Donald Trump claims his tax plan is “revenue neutral,” but tax experts say that just isn’t so. Not by a long stretch.

Even assuming the tax cuts would promote economic growth, the pro-business Tax Foundation estimates the Trump plan would reduce revenues to the Treasury by more than $10 trillion over 10 years.

Separately, Roberton Williams of the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center said it would require “substantial budget cuts” to make up for lost revenues.

The Trump tax plan, which he unveiled in a Sept. 28 press conference, includes deep tax cuts for individuals and businesses alike. And, he said, “all of this does not add to our debt or our deficit.” A position statement outlining the tax plan on Trump’s campaign website says the “tax cuts are fully paid for” by reducing or eliminating some individual and corporate tax preferences, and by repatriating corporate cash held overseas.

Trump is also banking on the plan spurring economic growth to generate new revenue. In a Sept. 28 piece penned for the Wall Street Journal, Trump again boasted, “With moderate growth, this plan will be revenue-neutral.”

Given the generous tax cuts proposed in the plan, however, Alan Cole, an economist with the Tax Foundation, said he was “puzzled” by Trump’s claim that the plan would be revenue neutral.

After performing an analysis of Trump’s proposal, Cole wrote in a blog post, “I do not believe this to be true under any scenario remotely resembling Mr. Trump’s plan.” The post ran under the unequivocal headline, “Donald Trump’s Tax Plan Will Not Be Revenue-Neutral Under Any Circumstances.

The Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s plan would cut taxes by nearly $12 trillion over a decade on a so-called “static” basis, meaning not taking into consideration how tax cuts could spur economic growth and increase revenues. The Tax Foundation believes the plan would increase incentives to work and invest, thereby spurring the economy. But even assuming that added revenue bump, called “dynamic scoring,” the Trump plan is expected to reduce tax revenues by just over $10 trillion over a decade, the Tax Foundation estimates.

And that’s because the tax cuts proposed by Trump are so deep, Cole does not believe any of the offsetting revenue streams — like reducing or eliminating personal and corporate tax expenditures — would be nearly enough to offset the revenue lost by those cuts.


The Proposed Cuts

On the individual side, Trump’s plan would consolidate the current seven tax brackets into four. One of the biggest revenue reducers would come from Trump’s proposal to reduce the top individual income tax rate from 39.6 percent to 25 percent. Trump would also expand the number of Americans who pay no taxes.

Under the Trump plan, single filers making $25,000 or less, or married couples making $50,000 or less, would pay zero income tax (or as Trump put it, they would fill out a one-page letter to the IRS that says “I win”). Trump says that would remove nearly 75 million households – over 50 percent – from the income tax rolls. But many of them are already not paying federal income taxes.

According to a Tax Policy Center analysis, about 67.3 million tax filers (41.4 percent of all tax filers) paid no federal income tax in 2014. Eric Toder, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, said it’s difficult to know how many more might be removed from federal tax obligations under Trump’s plan until he provides further details about how the plan would be structured.

While the Tax Foundation analysis found that the tax cuts would lead to lower taxes for taxpayers at all levels of income, the biggest winners — in raw dollars and on a percentage basis — would be those in the top 10 percent of filers, particularly those in the top 1 percent. Still, Cole wrote in a blog post on Sept. 30 that the plan “also contains a very large middle-class tax cut.”

According to the Tax Foundation analysis, after-tax income would increase by 3 percent for those in the 30 percent to 40 percent decile, and 8.9 percent in the 80 percent to 90 percent decile (on a static basis). Those in the top decile would see an increase in after-tax income of 14.6 percent.

On the corporate side, Trump would cut the corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 15 percent. Similarly, pass-through businesses — independent contractors, small LLCs etc., which are currently taxed as ordinary income up to a top rate of 39.6 percent — would be taxed at 15 percent. Trump also would do away with the estate tax.

“Putting all that together, you are going to see a multitrillion dollar reduction in revenues,” Cole said, “considerably larger than the plans of any other Republican candidates to date.”

By comparison, for example, an analysis of Jeb Bush’s tax plan by the Tax Foundation concluded Bush would cut taxes by $3.6 trillion over the next decade on a static basis, but would reduce tax revenue by $1.6 trillion when factoring in the economic growth that the pro-business group assumes the plan would generate. Said Cole, “Trump’s plan is similar to Bush’s, but with larger rate cuts in every area.”


The Offsets

According to the Trump campaign website, the Trump tax cuts are “fully paid for” through three main revenue generators: “reducing or eliminating most deductions and loopholes available to the very rich”; a “one-time deemed repatriation of corporate cash held overseas at a significantly discounted 10 percent tax rate, followed by an end to the deferral of taxes on corporate income earned abroad”; and “[r]educing or eliminating corporate loopholes that cater to special interests, as well as deductions made unnecessary or redundant by the new lower tax rate on corporations and business income.”

In addition, Trump’s plan said it would “phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses.”

Notably, however, Trump said he would preserve charitable giving and mortgage interest deductions — two of the largest income tax deductions — which account for about 10 percent of all tax expenditures.

The mortgage interest deduction is expected to reduce revenues to the Treasury by nearly $70 billion in 2015, and by more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years, while revenues lost to charitable contribution deductions amount to about $54 billion in 2015, or about $745 billion over the next 10 years, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget. In all, tax expenditures cost the government $1.2 trillion in 2014.

Trump also plans to keep the earned income tax credit, which is expected to cause a revenue hit of $63 billion this year, and the child tax credit, which reduces revenue by about $46 billion.

But even if all of the exclusions, deductions and tax preferences were cut, Cole said, “it’s not possible to get there [to revenue neutral].”

One offset that will not raise much new revenue is one that Trump repeatedly has touted on the campaign trail: taxing “carried interest” earned by hedge fund managers’ portfolio profits as ordinary income rather than capital gains.

Capital gains are taxed at a lower maximum rate than most ordinary income, which carries a top tax rate of 39.6 percent. “The hedge fund guys are getting away with murder,” Trump said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Aug. 23.

When Obama proposed taxing carried interest as ordinary income as part of his 2016 budget proposal, the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated it would bring in an additional $15.6 billion over the next 10 years. But Trump is proposing a top rate of 25 percent. So under Trump’s plan, carried interest would be taxed at a top rate of 25 percent, rather than the current 23.8 percent. That’s not much of an increase.

In fact, most hedge fund managers may actually see an overall tax cut. Vox analyzed Bush’s tax plan, which similarly proposed to tax carried interest as ordinary income, but at a top rate of 28 percent. Vox concluded that most hedge fund managers would see an overall tax decrease because other parts of their income derived from a percentage of the value of their portfolios — currently taxed as ordinary income up to a top rate of 39.6 percent — would only be taxed at a top rate of 28 percent. That part of their income would be taxed at an even lower top rate — 25 percent — under Trump’s plan.

In other words, the so-called carried interest loophole that Trump has talked so much about repealing is not going to offset revenue losses much at all.

And because Trump would cut the pass-through business income rate by more than half, to 15 percent, it is that much harder for economic growth to make up for lost revenue, Cole said. Williams, the Sol Price fellow at the Tax Policy Center, agrees the Trump plan could not be revenue neutral, as touted.

“On the face of it, it is a tax plan that is going to lose money [revenue to the Treasury],” he said.”The bottom line is that if you are going to do it by eliminating tax preferences, there aren’t enough preferences to make up for it.”

Take this example, Williams said: If someone makes $1.5 million in income, they are taxed at 39.6 percent on that last million. Cutting the rate to 25 percent means about $150,000 less in revenue to the Treasury. That person would have to earn $600,000 more per year to make up that lost revenue.

“There’s a lot of money disappearing,” Williams said. “There isn’t that much in tax breaks that he could take away.” Since Trump has said he would leave mortgage interest and charitable contributions alone, “we’re pretty much down to state and local tax deductions,” Williams said. There’s not enough there, he said, to boost your taxable income enough to offset the losses in tax revenue.

As a result, Williams said, it would require “substantial budget cuts” to make up for lost revenues.


 Budget Cuts

Trump said during his press conference and in the Wall Street Journal op-ed that he would cut spending. But Trump was short on details about how he would make such cuts, promising “disciplined budget management and elimination of waste, fraud and abuse” to achieve a balanced budget with the new tax plan.

Trump claimed there’s so much waste in the federal budget, he could make the necessary cuts without actually “losing anything” by way of services.

Trump referred specifically to “a 19-cent washer and it cost $900-and-some-odd thousand to send it from here to there.” It’s true that a South Carolina parts supplier fraudulently collected $998,798 from the Pentagon for sending two 19-cent washers to an Army base in Texas. The company and one of its owners were convicted of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and conspiracy to launder money.

Trump also cited the example of “hammers that cost $800 that you can buy in a store for a tiny amount of money” — a reference to a scandal over Pentagon spending on hammers in the early 1980s — and “a million dollars” spent on a soccer field at Guantanamo Bay (it was actually $744,000).

“We will run this country properly,” Trump said in his news conference. “There is so much money to be saved. We are reducing taxes, but at the same time if I win, if I become president, we will be able to cut so much money and have a better country. We won’t be losing anything other than we will be balancing budgets and getting them where they should be.”

As we have said, tax experts say Trump’s plan isn’t revenue neutral, so the promise to balance the budget would require even more spending cuts than under the current tax system. The Congressional Budget Office projects a $426 billion budget deficit in 2015.

Of course, there is fraud, waste and errors in any large organization, especially one as large as the federal government. According to the Government Accountability Office, the federal government in fiscal year 2014 made $124.7 billion in improper payments, up from $105.8 billion in fiscal 2013. But even if such errors were eliminated that would not be enough to balance the budget, let alone make up for lost tax revenues.


We take no position on the merits of Trump’s tax plan. But Trump has failed to provide evidence that he can keep his promise to cut taxes at the level he has proposed and raise enough new revenue elsewhere to make his plan revenue neutral.